TriggerFinger


2018 Election Results


As I write this, the Senate is R+4, and the House is D+25 (sufficient to flip control) with a little under 400 seats called. We've lost the House unless something unusual happens on the west coast. With a 2 seat margin, that's not impossible.

Improving our position in the Senate is good. It means Trump will be able to confirm officials and judges much easier.

Losing the House is bad. It gives the Dems significant influence on the budget process and the ability to block any expenditures they really object to. Like border walls. It also gives them the ability to shut down investigations into SpyGate. (Donald Trump will retain his ability to declassify certain elements, but at greater risk from Mueller claiming obstruction). Basically, the Dems taking the House means the end of any possibility of productive legislation that advances our cause. We'll get spending bills and nothing else. And those spending bills will be compromises.

Florida's ballot measure to restore voting rights to felons likely will pass. As a practical matter this is a huge swing on voting patterns in that state. Assuming they vote in large numbers and vote largely Democrat, we can probably write off winning anything statewide in Florida. That includes presidential races. The only bright spot is that they have to complete their whole sentence first, so the perpetual jailbirds will not be voting, just the people who are already out. This change is likely to be the most lasting effect of this election. Without Florida, it's very hard for Republicans to win the White House.

Other ballot measures. A lot of states will be allowing or decriminalizing marijuana. Meh. North Carolina and North Dakota tightened voting rules, but I don't think that will counteract the effect that Florida loosening them will. Washington State passed their gun control ballot measure, which is a disaster for pro-gun folks in that state. Expect a court challenge.

There is one small upside: if the Rs want the House back in 2020, they'll have to present a real platform of stuff they promise to get done to get it. They've been pretty much just coasting the last 2 years, passing a tax cut and failing to pass anything else significant.

This entry was published Wed Nov 07 03:57:43 CST 2018 by TriggerFinger and last updated 2018-11-07 00:03:55.0. [Tweet]

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