TriggerFinger


Judicial Watch book chapter on voter fraud now available


It's worth reading if you don't have the book. The bottom line on voter fraud is that it's a real problem that corrupt politicians would much rather we didn't look at closely. It's rapidly becoming clear that whatever Trump is, he's not a corrupt politician. Even his own party and his own lawyers are warning him off the voter fraud topic, but he seems inclined to continue anyway.

Personally, I think voter fraud is widespread. I'm not sure it's widespread enough to reverse the popular vote results. Let's do some math.

The "consensus figure" on illegal immigrants appears to be about 12 million. I think that's low, but let's go with it.

In 2016, turnout was about 55%. That's 6 million potential votes. Assuming half of them voted for Hillary, that's 3 million potential Hillary votes right there -- her entire popular vote margin.

Now, we need to reality-check some of those numbers.

Do illegal immigrants vote at the same turnout rate as ordinary citizens? Probably not, since it's illegal for them to vote (even if the law is not enforced); but it's hard to know what their turnout rate is. Let's assume it's somewhat less and look at the next factor.

Do illegal immigrants vote for the same candidates as citizens? We have even less data here, but we can make some guesses. We know based on exit polls that hispanics typically vote for Democrats at roughly 2/3rds. Not all hispanics are illegal aliens, but most illegal aliens are hispanics. It's reasonable to assume that illegal aliens in general are significantly more likely to vote for Democrats, and during this election in particular (since illegal immigration was a major issue), even more likely than usual to vote for Hillary over Trump.

So we have two hard to measure but likely significant factors pointing in opposite directions. In the absence of better data, let's assume they cancel out.

Using those fairly conservative numbers -- a lot fewer than Trump's cited 30 million figure, which seems more likely to me than the official numbers -- it's clear that vote fraud by illegal aliens could easily have constituted Hillary's entire margin of popular vote victory.

This entry was published Mon Jan 30 09:25:30 CST 2017 by TriggerFinger and last updated 2017-01-30 09:25:30.0. [Tweet]

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