Personally, I think voter fraud is widespread. I'm not sure it's widespread enough to reverse the popular vote results. Let's do some math.
The "consensus figure" on illegal immigrants appears to be about 12 million. I think that's low, but let's go with it.
In 2016, turnout was about 55%. That's 6 million potential votes. Assuming half of them voted for Hillary, that's 3 million potential Hillary votes right there -- her entire popular vote margin.
Now, we need to reality-check some of those numbers.
Do illegal immigrants vote at the same turnout rate as ordinary citizens? Probably not, since it's illegal for them to vote (even if the law is not enforced); but it's hard to know what their turnout rate is. Let's assume it's somewhat less and look at the next factor.
Do illegal immigrants vote for the same candidates as citizens? We have even less data here, but we can make some guesses. We know based on exit polls that hispanics typically vote for Democrats at roughly 2/3rds. Not all hispanics are illegal aliens, but most illegal aliens are hispanics. It's reasonable to assume that illegal aliens in general are significantly more likely to vote for Democrats, and during this election in particular (since illegal immigration was a major issue), even more likely than usual to vote for Hillary over Trump.
So we have two hard to measure but likely significant factors pointing in opposite directions. In the absence of better data, let's assume they cancel out.
Using those fairly conservative numbers -- a lot fewer than Trump's cited 30 million figure, which seems more likely to me than the official numbers -- it's clear that vote fraud by illegal aliens could easily have constituted Hillary's entire margin of popular vote victory.
This entry was published Mon Jan 30 09:25:30 CST 2017 by TriggerFinger
and last updated 2017-01-30 09:25:30.0.
[Tweet]
