TriggerFinger


Don't give up on Trump yet


RasmussenIt’s too early to measure the impact of last night’s final presidential debate, but Republican Donald Trump now has a three-point lead nationally on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40%. Six percent (6%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and three percent (3%) favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump were tied yesterday at 42% apiece. Clinton held a seven-point lead at the beginning of last week just after the airing of an 11-year old video showing Trump making graphic sexual remarks, but she began losing ground after the second presidential debate. The lead has been shifting back and forth since late last week.

I'm not going to get into the intricacies of poll analysis. It's sufficient to note that the poll above is probably an outlier, but that in polling, predicting the demographics of the electorate (those who actually vote) is at least as important as how individuals respond when they are polled. If Rasmussen is getting the electorate right and the other polls aren't, Trump could well be leading.

This entry was published Sun Oct 30 12:45:51 CDT 2016 by TriggerFinger and last updated 2016-10-30 12:45:51.0. [Tweet]

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