Playing the prediction game

The HillThe deliberate approach is meant to draw a contrast with the snap judgment the White House says Republicans made just hours after Scalia’s death, when they pledged to reject any nominee Obama put forward.

“There’s still 11 months left in the president’s term here, which provides ample time for the president to fulfill his constitutional responsibility and ample time for the Congress to fulfill their constitutional responsibility,” Earnest said Monday.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction.

I think Obama will slow-walk his nominee, giving the Senate ample time to obstruct things, fight about whether or not to have hearings, whether or not to have an up or down vote, and all the things the Senate does that make it look unproductive and obstructionist. In the end, the Senate will either take no action or vote down Obama's nominee.

This is exactly what Obama wants.

He's eying the gap between the November elections and the incoming Senate. If Congress votes down his nominee, he will nominate someone new -- who appears more moderate -- but late in the game. If the Senate does not act on his nominee, Obama will wait till after the election to act. In either case, he will focus on making the Senate look obstructionist and lobbying those Senators who have just been reelected. He will want Senators whose seats are now safe for the next six years to cave on his nominee. He will argue, if a Republican wins, that that Republican will have the chance to appoint his own nominees fairly (and threaten to obstruct those nominees if his own is blocked). He will argue, if a Democrat wins, that the Senate is better off appointing his own "moderate" pick than whoever the new President picks.

And he will say that whatever the Senate does, the voters will have forgotten about it in 6 years.

Will it work? I dunno, but I think that's how he's going to play this. Let the Republicans posture and attack them after the elections.

This entry was published Fri Feb 26 12:00:30 CST 2016 by TriggerFinger and last updated 2016-02-26 12:00:30.0. [Tweet]

comments powered by Disqus

Subscribe to Atom Feed

I am not a lawyer, and nothing on this site should be taken as legal advice.

This site is run on custom blog software and is being actively developed. Please be forgiving of errors.

This website is an Amazon affiliate and will receive financial compensation for products purchased from Amazon through links on this site.