Thoughts on the Russian airplane crashes...

In case you haven't heard, two airplanes recently crashed in Russia. While there hasn't exactly been a news blackout, the volume of reporting has been relatively low. I'd like to extend my sympathy to the Russian people concerning this event.

Russian emergency workers are continuing to sift through twisted metal for clues about why two airliners crashed within minutes of each other, killing all 89 people aboard.

Officials said one of the jets had sent a hijack distress signal after taking off from Moscow's Domodedovo Airport on Tuesday night, raising fears terrorists had struck.

They crashed within minutes of each other, and took off from the same airport. One of them changed its transponder to the "hijack" code after taking off. All of these things are suggestive. The closeness of time and the fact that the planes took off from the same airport suggests a connection between the events; plane crashes are extremely rare and it's very unlikely that two would occur in such a similar manner without a connection.

That connection could be something wrong with the airport's maintenance procedures, or weather conditions in the region, or any number of other possibilities. But the most likely possibility is the one that first comes to mind: terrorism. Authorities in Russia are saying that their initial examination of the crash site found no evidence of terrorism, but then, frankly, I wouldn't expect it to. The flight data recorders are where that evidence would be found.

A spokesman for the Federal Security Service said Wednesday that while a preliminary investigation of the crash sites had not revealed evidence of a terrorist act, terrorism was still on the table as a possible cause.

Russian officials have rushed the flight data recorders from the two airliners back to Moscow, where they will be decoded for clues to explain the crashes.

There are a lot of people who will be waiting for reports from those recorders with baited breath. But working on the assumption that this is, in fact, terrorism... it has some interesting consequences.

Russia has not exactly been gung-ho about the war on terror. They have their own problems, and in Iraq, probably their own dirty laundry. They've been sympathetic and have helped out the way your neighbor helps out when a drunk driver wrecks your parked car. But now the terrorists are targeting the Russians. And that's a whole different story.

So, if this brings the Russians into the war on terror, we have a new ally with fresh determination. But there's a flipside. As Steven Den Beste describes it, the purpose of [classical] terrorism is to provoke reprisals. The US doesn't exactly have a spotless civil rights record, but the Russian record (under Communism) is a fair bit worse.

While the US is still disturbed by reports of its soldiers abusing prisoners, and still works itself up into a lather about the potential use of torture in interrogations, the Russian security forces are likely to have fewer compunctions than ours. I don't speak from any kind of direct knowledge here, but I think the historical facts behind this opinion speak for themselves. In some ways this may make them more effective, but it also has costs; and playing into the hands of the terrorists is one of them.

So the terrorists may be attempting to provoke Russian abuses as part of their strategy, perhaps after realizing that the US troops are winning the public relations battle. It could be effective as a way to reignite support for the Chechen conflict that had been dying down, if the Russians allow themselves to be goaded.

Luckily, the attacks seem to have failed. At least, failed by measurement to the standards of 9-11; downing two aircraft would be considered a success just a few years ago. As a result, this is unlikely to be a transformative event for the Russians as 9-11 was for the US. That should encourage clear strategic thinking from the Russian leaders.

And there's a bonus. Failure has the same consequences for terrorists as it does for governments fighting terrorists: when you fail, you look weak, and people are reluctant to support you. Botching this operation is probably more damaging to the terrorist's goals than not trying at all.

UPDATE: Explosives have been found in the wreckage.